2016 MLB Season Win Total PECOTA Projections

MLB Logo
MLB Pecota Projections

Baseball Prospectus just released 2016 MLB Season Win Total PECOTA Projections. If you wager on baseball or play fantasy baseball you are probably familiar with the wealth of information available on Baseball Prospectus (BP).

If you’re not familiar with BP or PECOTA I’ll share some information after the standings. If you are familiar with BP and PECOTA you might find these projections helpful when looking at betting MLB season win totals and MLB futures (below).

This is only a snippet of the information from Baseball Prospectus. There are definitely some surprises and projections I don’t understand right now and will have to dig deeper to understand. You can see the full projections Baseball Prospectus.

American League PECOTA Standings Projections

ALPecota

National League PECOTA Standings Projections

NLPecota

What is PECOTA? Here’s some info from Baseball Prospectus.

(PECOTA) Stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. PECOTA is BP’s proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player-seasons. There are three elements to PECOTA:

1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;
2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player’s true talent level;
3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players’ stats changed over time.

Check out the PECOTA section of the glossary for more on the system’s intricacies.

For reference here are the opening and current MLB World Series Futures odds from William Hill.

WillHillMLB

Here’s an even better reference and comparison for the 2016 PECOTA projections. Golden Nugget released season win totals. Here’s the first look from Covers.com.

NuggetMLBWins

See 2015 MLB PECOTA season win total projections here.

2015 MLB Season Win Totals From William Hill

MLB Season Win Totals
MLB Season Win Totals

Earlier today William Hill released their Major League Baseball season win totals. These are different from the openers from Westgate on Sunday that I wrote about on Vegas Chatter.

Any limit bets over or under of any of this totals will change the number. If you want to wager on the totals close to these numbers you should act quickly. If you need a point of reference for these totals here’s a link to the 2015 season win PECOTA projections that I posted last week.

Who ya got??

Arizona Diamondbacks 71.5
Atlanta Braves 74.5
Baltimore Orioles 83
Boston Red Sox 85.5
Chicago Cubs 83
Chicago White Sox 82
Cincinnati Reds 78
Clevelands Indians 83
Colorado Rockies 72
Detroit Tigers 84
Houston Astros 76.5
Kansas City Royals 80.5
Los Angeles Angels 89.5
Los Angeles Dodgers 94
Miami Marlins 81.5
Milwaukee Brewers 79.5
Minnesota Twins 72
New York Mets 81
New York Yankees 81.5
Oakland A’s 83
Philadelphia Phillies 69.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 84.5
San Diego Padres 83.5
San Francisco Giants 84.5
Seattle Mariners 87.5
Saint Louis Cardinals 89
Tampa Bay Rays 79.5
Texas Rangers 78
Toronto Blue Jays 83.5
Washington Nationals 94

2015 MLB Season Win Total PECOTA Projections

MLB Logo
MLB Pecota Projections

Baseball Prospectus released their 2015 MLB Season Win Total PECOTA Projections last week. If you bet on baseball or play fantasy baseball you are probably familiar with the wealth of information available on Baseball Prospectus (BP).

If you’re not familiar with BP or PECOTA I’ll share some information after the standings. If you are familiar with BP and PECOTA you might find these projections helpful when looking at betting MLB season win totals and MLB futures. This is only a snippet of the information from Baseball Prospectus. There are definitely some surprises and projections I don’t understand right now and will have to dig deeper to understand. You can see the full projections on their site.

American League Standings Projections

American League Pecota Projections
American League Pecota Projections

National League Standings Projections

National League Pecota Projections
National League Pecota Projections

What is PECOTA? Here’s some info from Baseball Prospectus.

(PECOTA) Stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. PECOTA is BP’s proprietary system that projects player performance based on comparison with historical player-seasons. There are three elements to PECOTA:

1) Major-league equivalencies, to allow us to use minor-league stats to project how a player will perform in the majors;
2) Baseline forecasts, which use weighted averages and regression to the mean to produce an estimate of a player’s true talent level;
3) A career-path adjustment, which incorporates information about how comparable players’ stats changed over time.

Check out the PECOTA section of the glossary for more on the system’s intricacies.

Current Odds To Win The World Series

Yankees World Series Trophies
Yankees World Series Trophies

The post MLB trade deadline odds to win the World Series from William Hill are below. Before the season I grabbed the Washington Nationals at 10/1. They’re still 10/1 and I’m still alive!

I’m always looking for a late season World Series bet with value. A couple of years ago I made a late season bet on the Phillies at 1000-1. It was one of the most fun bets I ever made. It doesn’t look like that kind of crazy long shot opportunity will be available this year.

Any teams stand out as a value? Here are the current mathematical odds from Baseball Prospectus on teams making the playoffs if you need.

Rotation Number/Team/Odds

5001 DODGERS – 4 / 1
5002 RED SOX – 150 / 1
5003 CARDINALS – 15/1
5004 ATHLETICS – 7/ 2
5005 TIGERS – 9/ 2
5006 BRAVES – 25 / 1
5007 NATIONALS – 10/1
5008 TB RAYS – 30/1
5009 GIANTS – 10 / 1
5010 PIRATES – 18 / 1
5011 REDS – 25 / 1
5012 YANKEES – 22 / 1
5013 ANGELS – 8 / 1
5014 RANGERS – 2500 / 1
5015 INDIANS – 60 / 1
5016 ORIOLES – 12 / 1
5017 PHILLIES – 1000 / 1
5018 D’BACKS – 1000 / 1
5019 BLUE JAYS – 25/ 1
5020 ROYALS – 40 / 1
5021 PADRES – 250 / 1
5022 ROCKIES – 2500/ 1
5023 BREWERS – 6/1
5024 WHITE SOX – 200/1
5025 MARINERS – 22/1
5026 CUBS – 2500/ 1
5027 METS – 250/ 1
5028 TWINS – 1000/ 1
5029 MARLINS – 60/ 1
5030 ASTROS – 1000 / 1

63% Chance That Milwaukee Brewers Making Playoffs

Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers have started the baseball season on fire. They were a sleeper pick by some of the so-called experts but those people were few and far between. I’ve been able to ride their coat tails for a few nice paying winning bets but I’m afraid that favorable prices for games may be gone. Now, according to the smart guys at Baseball Prospectus, the Milwaukee Brewers have odds of 63% to make the playoffs and are favored to win the NL Central.

NL Central Odds From Baseball Prospectus
NL Central Odds From Baseball Prospectus

This is a great resource so plan accordingly. The Washington Nationals are still 64% to make the playoffs despite their slow start. I’ll be riding the Brew Crew as long as it makes sense.

MLB Win Totals From William Hill

MLB Logo
MLB

Here are the first run of season win totals from William Hill (2/17). I’ll give these a more in depth look over the weekend. My first thought is that I think I love the Tigers Under 89.5. Who do you like?

Diamondbacks – 80
Braves – 88
Orioles – 79.5
Red Sox – 88.5
Cubs – 69.5
White Sox – 75.5
Reds – 83
Indians – 81
Rockies – 75.5
Tigers – 89.5
Astros – 62.5
Royals – 81
Angels – 87.5
Dodgers – 93.5
Marlins – 68.5
Brewers – 78.5
Twins – 70
Mets – 73.5
Yankees – 87.5
Athletics – 88.5
Phillies – 76.5
Pirates – 85.5
Padres – 79
Giants – 85.5
Mariners – 79
Cardinals – 92.5
Rays – 88
Rangers – 87
Blue Jays – 79
Nationals – 87.5

 

Fox Sports 1 Bringing Point Spreads To The Masses

Fox Sports 1 Point Spreads
Fox Sports 1 Showing Point Spreads

Fox Sports 1 launched as a 24 hour all sports network last week. While CBS and NBC have launched 24 hour sports networks in the past year it looks as if Fox Sports 1 will be the greatest challenger to ESPN. ESPN is the largest all sports network with the most history so each network has to carve their own niche with sports fans. NBC Sports Network has focused its programming around the NHL, NFL, Premier League and fringe sports like cycling while CBS Sports Network seems to be a minor league sports network filling much of its programming with lesser tier college football and college basketball.

Fox Sports 1 will be a home for NFL, UFC, college football and soccer spillover from regular Fox programming. I’m assuming that they’ll integrate MLB into next year’s shows. Fox Sports 1 seems to have the most upper tier programming to take some market share from big brother, ESPN. In addition to strong major league sports they have a strong roster of former professional athletes and professional broadcasters for their regular TV shows (hello Charissa and Erin).

Mainstream sports media has tiptoed around gambling in the past even though it plays a large role in popularity of certain sports – especially football. One way that Fox Sports 1 is differentiating itself from ESPN is not hiding from gambling – at least not hiding from the fact that gambling exists. Fox Sports 1 has point spreads displayed when they run upcoming matchups on their bottom line or side bar (above). This isn’t just for football as they had betting odds for the UFC fights last weekend.

Fox Sports 1 Bottom Line UFC Odds

I haven’t noticed any of the talking heads on Fox Sports 1 speaking about gambling directly but this is the first time that I can remember seeing a TV network using point spreads all day long, not just for pick segments.

I’m curious to see how they incorporate point spreads into football wrap ups. Discussing ATS (Against The Spread) records along side of straight up records would really open the door to sports betting discussion. As a sports bettor and fan I would love this.

Body Photo: 30 FPS 

William Hill MLB Props And More

One of the great things in sports betting right now is the innovation and expansion of wagering opportunities. William Hill has been very active and has released a slew of new betting options for the MLB season. They’ve been doing this for all sports and they also have a March Madness contest coming up. Check em out.

02.21.13 baseball most hrs

02.21.13 mlb regular season props

3NOut Release – 022813

02.21.13 baseball futures

Play Ball! Not Slot Machines.

New York Mets Citi Field
Citi Field

Pitchers and catchers report to MLB spring training today! Baseball fans, like me, love this day. Not only does it signify that nice weather is around the corner but so is baseball season.

One of the newest baseball stadiums, Citi Field home to the New York Mets, was originally proposed to house a casino. Alas, that fell through.

The owners of the New York Mets reportedly wanted to take a gamble on owning a casino next to Citi Field, the home of their major league club.

Sterling Equities, the real estate company operated by Mets owner Fred Wilpon and family, pitched a casino adjacent to the major league stadium in September 2011 and offered the City of New York $100 million to acquire 62 acres for the site, the New York Post reported Tuesday.

It’s a shame that building a casino to go along with Citi Field fell through. It wouldn’t have been a full casino since casinos in New York City aren’t allowed to have table games yet.

This casino would just have slot machines and video poker but it would have combined two of my favorite things in the world baseball and casinos. It would give this Yankees fan an excuse to check out a new baseball stadium even if it meant sitting through the Muts.

There’s more on the potential of a Queens casino at the New York Post.

Photo waytenmom.blogspot.com

 

Best Sportsbooks In Las Vegas

The new year means it’s time to update some of my favorite things in Vegas. With the Super Bowl and March Madness right around the corner I figured that I might as well start with a new edition of the Top 5 Sportsbooks In Las Vegas. These are MY favorites. Yours may differ but they’re wrong…at least for me. If you compare to last year’s Top 5 sportsbooks in Vegas you won’t see much change but you will notice some tweaks.

1. Lagasse’s Stadium (The Palazzo)- Last week I questioned whether or not Lagasse’s Stadium should even be considered a sportsbook. It’s really a restaurant with a bar and sportsbook but the more I think about it the more that I remember that Lagasse’s Stadium is the future of sportsbooks. Lagasse’s Stadium may be the greatest place in Vegas. It’s a great place to watch the games, snack, drink, play blackjack, play pool and more. Just don’t expect drink tickets. Those are only given with bets above $5,000 at the manager’s discretion. I can’t wait for all of the Cantor Gaming sportsbooks to turn all of their sportsbooks into restaurants. It will happen some day.

Venetian Sportsbook

2. The Venetian – This is by far the best traditional sportsbook. There is never a fee to sit and watch the games. The huge HD TV screens can be seen from far away in The Venetian casino and even though cocktail waitresses are sparse in this huge sportsbook, there’s a bar in the back of the sportsbook to get drinks. You can still watch the games (and play video poker). Not enough praise can go into the beauty of the TV’s at The Venetian sportsbook. As an added bonus this year a burger joint opened across the casino called Rattlecan. Rattlecan sends their waitresses to the sportsbook and will bring you pretty good burgers. (See review at Vegas Chatter)

Wynn Sportsbook

3. Wynn – I had a bad experience here a few years ago and held a grudge but after a recent stay at Encore I’ve come around to the sportsbook at Wynn. There is a lot of comfortable seating in between the race and sports sides of the book plus there’s a bar overlooking the sportsbook with about 50-75 more seats. The projection screens could use some updating while the TV’s for less important games could use more size and updating but they’re very easy to watch if you have a seat up close. If you’re just watching a major event like the Super Bowl this shouldn’t matter.

Bellagio Sportsbook

4. Bellagio – The Bellagio sportsbook isn’t very big but it’s nice and comfortable. This sportsbook had new TV’s installed this year and that helps. Bellagio is one of my favorite casinos in Las Vegas so I’m happy to see that things are improving on the sportsbook side. It’s another great excuse to visit. If you want a seat for the games here arrive early because the sportsbook is very small.

Red Rock Sportsbook

5. Red Rock Resort – The sportsbook at Red Rock Resort is huge. It’s definitely the sportsbook for locals since it’s about half hour away from the Vegas strip. During football season the Red Rock sportsbook is very busy almost to the point of where it’s not fun but it’s still great. If you like to drink while watching the games this is your place. Cocktail waitresses make rounds non-stop. I prefer the Red Rock sportsbook during NBA and MLB seasons because it’s a little slower and they show all of the games. Video poker players will be happy to find full pay Bonus Poker at the sportsbook bar.

Silverton Sportsbook

Honorable mention: Silverton. The Silverton sportsbook is small but it’s brand new will appropriately size TV screens. It’s not at a very busy casino but that usually means you can find a seat. If it’s busy, you can sit at a slot machine. A bar, Starbucks and Johnny Rockets are steps away if you need food or drink. Like all cantor gaming sportsbooks there’s free wifi and outlets for access to things not on TV.