Blackjack Dealer Bust Rates
One of the biggest myths is to always assume that the dealer always has a 10 in the hole. That’s only true around 30% of the time (16 tens per 52 card deck). Here’s a fact about dealer hands. According to math provided by Blackjack Age the dealer busts more than 28% of the time.
The dealer has an average bust rate of 28.36% on any given hand and, as you can see, based on this chart, 4, 5, and 6 are the dealer’s biggest bust cards. However, how do you know whether or not you should hit or stand and hope for the dealer to bust in a given situation? Your best bet is to take your own bust-out rates into consideration and then stand only when your chances of busting are greater than the dealer’s chances.
Here’s a chart with the dealer bust rate based on the card they have showing.
Looking at this chart you can see the math behind why a blackjack dealer is more likely to bust when they have a “bust card”. The dealer is almost twice as likely to bust when they have a 2 through 6.
This also show that a common phrase heard at blackjack tables, “a 2 is the dealer’s ace“, is not even close to being true as the two bust 3 times as often as an ace. Chalk that up as another myth.
I practice blackjack strategy and counting with the ODDcase app for iPhone. It’s the best blackjack app around and the full version is only $1.99.
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